Stats that say striker not Arsenals big issue plus Man Utds mediocrity

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I will not have the time that Arteta has had - Amorim

It is one of footballs oldest cliches, but in the case of Manchester United and Arsenal this season, the league table really does not lie.

For Arsenal, one point from their past two games means they are extremely unlikely to reel in league leaders Liverpool and face the disappointing prospect of finishing second for a third straight season.

For United, it has been a historically miserable season, marooned in 14th place, still waiting to win back-to-back Premier League games and contemplating their worst points record in the competition.

And yet according to the underlying numbers, neither side can have any complaints.

Arsenal beat Man Utd 2-0 in the Premier League in December, but 10-man United knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup third round on penalties after a 1-1 draw, in January.

Beyond being second, they are down in almost every metric on this time in 2023-24, where they had 61 points after 27 games.

Their shot conversion rate is also worse than last season but, despite valid criticism about the lack of a striker, only Brentford and Liverpool have proved more efficient at putting the ball in the net.

However, it is only in goals conceded that Arsenal have matched their 2023-24 record – and they remain the best defence in the Premier League in that regard.

As for United, their goal difference demonstrates their position is correct:

In fact, when looking at the attacking numbers, only Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Ham have a poorer shot conversion rate than Uniteds 9.3%.

Problems in attack are mirrored at the back even though there has been partial improvement this season.

Ruben Amorims side have actually faced far fewer shots than at this stage in 2023-24 – and a smaller number than high-flying Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Aston Villa.

However, a higher percentage of those shots are going in as United have conceded the same number (39) as they had by this point last season.

Arsenal have won their past four Premier League games against United – the longest such streak in the history of this rivalry – but did lose on penalties to Amorims 10-man side in the FA Cup in January.

The underlying numbers still suggest a United victory in their third-round tie was unexpected.

Mikel Artetas side were dominant in almost all metrics, as they had been in the league encounter a month previously, only to find Uniteds second-choice keeper Altay Bayindir inspired as he denied the Gunners.

In fact, the only area where Amorims side laid a blow was in fouls, committing 50% more than their opponents.

"Its a big club which has struggled a little bit but we know the quality they have when theyre really on it," said Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard. "They have a lot of good individual players that we have to be ready for.

"But we go there to win. Were Arsenal and were not scared. Theres always more to play for at the end of the season but every game in this league is so important from the start to the end."

Additional data journalism by Chris Collinson, BBC Sport Statistician