Steve Rosenberg: Russia is staying quiet on Trumps nuclear move

Could this be the first time in history a social media spat triggers nuclear escalation?

President Donald Trump, offended by posts by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, says hes ordered two nuclear submarines to move closer to Russia.

So, how will Moscow respond? Are we on a path to a nuclear standoff between America and Russia? An internet-age version of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis?

I doubt it, judging by initial reaction in Russia.

Russian news outlets have been rather dismissive of Trumps announcement.

Speaking to the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper, a military commentator concluded that Trump was "throwing a temper tantrum".

A retired lieutenant-general told Kommersant that the US presidents talk of submarines was "meaningless blather. Its how he gets his kicks".

"Im sure Trump didnt really give any orders [about submarines]," a Russian security expert suggested to the same paper.

Kommersant also mentions that in 2017, Trump said that hed despatched two nuclear submarines to the Korean peninsula as a warning to North Korea.

Yet not long after, Trump held a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

So, bizarrely, might Donald Trumps latest submarine deployment be a precursor to a US-Russia summit?

I wouldnt go that far.

But the reaction from the Russian authorities has been interesting.

At time of writing, there hasnt been any.

Not from the Kremlin. Not from the Russian foreign ministry. Nor the defence ministry.

And Ive seen no announcement about Russian nuclear submarines being positioned closer to America.

Which suggests that either Moscow is still studying the situation and working out what to do, or that Moscow doesnt feel the need to react.

The Russian press reaction I mentioned earlier suggests its the latter.

Trump had been sparring with Medvedev on social media for several days.

After the US president had reduced his 50-day deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine to less than two weeks, Medvedev posted that Trump was "playing the ultimatum game with Russia…Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war".

Trump responded: "Tell Medvedev, the failed former Russian president who thinks he is still in power, to be careful what he says. He is entering very dangerous territory."

Medvedevs next post contained a reference to "Dead Hand", the automatic nuclear retaliation system developed in the Soviet Union.

Clearly, that did not go down well with the White House chief.

When he was Russias president, between 2008 and 2012, Medvedev was seen as a relatively liberal figure.

"Freedom is better than no freedom" he was famously quoted as saying.

But he has grown increasingly hawkish. Since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine he has gained a reputation for bombastic, anti-Western social media posts. Most of them have passed unnoticed, since he is not viewed as the voice of the Kremlin.

Suddenly he has been noticed: by the President of the United States.

And not just noticed. Hes got right under Trumps skin.

Its one thing to dislike a social media post. Weve all been there.

But to dislike it so much you deploy nuclear submarines feels like overkill.

So why has Trump done it?

Heres Trumps own explanation from his interview with Newsmax: "Medvedev said some things that are very bad, talking about nuclear. When you mention the word nuclear my eyes light up and I say we better be careful, because its the ultimate threat."

But Medvedev has long been accused of nuclear sabre-rattling via social media. Its nothing new.

What is clear is that Trump took the recent Medvedev posts very personally, and reacted accordingly.

Might there also be a strategy at play? Unpredictability feels like a big part of Trumps way of doing things, in business and in politics; taking unexpected decisions that can put rivals and opponents off balance before talks or during a negotiation.

On ending the war in Ukraine, for example.

Surprise submarine deployments may well fall into that category.