Why Wales game is must-win for Scotland coach Townsend

Gregor Townsend

Guinness Mens Six Nations: Scotland v Wales

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 March Kick-off: 16:45 GMT

Coverage: Watch on BBC One, listen on BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio Scotland and BBC Sounds; text commentary and highlights on the BBC Sport website and app

It will all change on Saturday when the pipes skirl and the passion rises and the Scotland team bus pulls into view, but this has been the lowest of low-key build-ups to a Six Nations game at Murrayfield for quite some time.

Theres a twisted logic around the visiting fans, their team bottom of the table and winless in 15, feeling better about themselves than the hosts, but there you have it - the Six Nations in all its complex glory.

Wales, without a victory since Tom Jones was in short pants, are coming to Edinburgh with a pulse after a fine performance against Ireland. Matt Sherratt, the interim head coach, has applied the defibrillator and the patient is now showing signs of life.

Theyre coming to a rugby country that has had the energy sucked out of it with that late loss in Twickenham, which followed on from the spirit-sapping defeat by Ireland at Murrayfield, which obliterated their Six Nations hopes.

Hello darkness my old friend would be a more fitting preamble than Flower of Scotland. The sound of silence has been deafening in Scottish rugby circles for much of the past fortnight.

Maybe thats why Finn Russell, as opposed to Scotlands other co-captain Rory Darge, did media on Friday. Maybe Scottish Rugby felt they needed some stardust, a galvanising presence to fire up the fans and convince them that, yes, the championship bid is over, but yes again, there is something big to play for here.

The something big is back-foot stuff, though. Theyre playing to avoid a nightmare rather than to keep a dream alive. Their motivation is to avert the horror show of one win from four with a trip to Paris to come and the grand inquisition of the coaches that would come with it.

Scottish heads are done in. Scotland are ranked number one in the tournament for fewest tries conceded, fewest tackles missed and most ball carries, number two for metres gained, line breaks, breakdown steals and tries scored.

And yet they sit fourth in the table and are already out of contention for the big prize.

Still we hear the mumbo-jumbo from former players in other places about Scotland supposedly talking themselves up. During the week, the great Welsh and Lions scrum-half Mike Phillips joined the list of people who dont understand Scottish rugby and the fatalism that has run through it for close to a quarter of a century.

Phillips said the Scots have been predicting Six Nations glory for 20 years, a comment so remarkable that people here will remember it in the way they remember where they were when they heard Elvis had died.

(Younger readers: swap Taylor Swift for Elvis and replace died with releasing a new album or some such revelation).

Predictions of greatness? Many Scottish rugby fans look 20 years older than they actually are because of all the angst theyve gone through. Phillips has been living in an alternate reality this whole time.

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None of this phony war stuff in the media is going to permeate Scotlands bubble in any meaningful way. They know whats at stake here - not a championship tilt, but credibility and, possibly, the future of Gregor Townsend.

Scottish Rugby is under relatively new management and there will be a deep reluctance to change the international coaching ticket even if the Wales game goes wrong, but defeat would bring howls of protest from fans.

Scotland have won 18 out of 38 in the Six Nations on Townsends watch. Theyve lost two games by a single point - one game by two points, one by three and two by four.

Ten Six Nations matches have been lost by seven points or fewer - including two in 2020 and 2021 (they won the other three) and three in 2024 (they won the other two). What-might-have-beens are writ large over his regime.

Refereeing decisions have been unkind at crucial moments, but in eight attempts Scotland have not gone into the final weekend with a realistic shot at the title.

They have advanced under Townsends coaching, though. Anybody saying otherwise is allowing their disappointment to overtake their perspective. Scotland in full flow are a thrillfest, just not a consistent one.

Theres a reason why Scotland have not contended. The talk of their golden generation is about as misplaced as the chat about them bigging themselves up.

For sure, this is probably the most talented backline Scotland has ever produced, but in no way is it among the most talented pack of forwards.

Its a good pack, but its a way off championship-winning good and a world away from Grand Slam good. You hear talk of Townsend wasting the golden generation. Thats one-eyed analysis. It focuses solely on the wonders of the backline without properly assessing the forwards and their superior counterparts in Ireland and France.

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But not in Wales. There is nothing superior about this Welsh team in the pack or behind the pack and thats why Townsend wont be cut any slack if Scotland dont win.

No allowances will be made for the injured Sione Tuipulotu, no nuance will be applied because Scott Cummings, Max Williamson, Andy Onyeama-Christie and Josh Bayliss are unavailable.

This is a should-win because Townsends team look stronger in most positions, have won the past two against Wales and have home advantage, but its also a must-win.

Townsend cant hope to avoid heavy flak, or a serious examination of the way of things by his bosses, if his team goes from three wins in 2023 to two wins in 2024 to (possibly) one win in 2025. That would suddenly look like a dead end.

By the skin of their teeth, and the width of a goalpost, the bookmakers were proven right when they made England favourites at Twickenham. Theyre now making Scotland overwhelming, almost unbackable, favourites on Saturday.

According to the bookies, Wales dont have much of a prayer and that kind of status will suit them nicely. No-hopers? Diolch.

Theyre not the only ones with points to prove, though. That wasteful loss to England has sickened Scotland to their core and you can imagine them nursing that frustration for a fortnight. They should be two from three.

Theyre maybe not the roaring certainties the odds layers tell you they are, but theyll be fine up front, they could be wondrous out the back and they should have too much for Wales. Or else the night sky might fall.